"Dust Bowl" Predicted, Southwestern US Drought

A team led by Richard Seager of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory predicts a "perpetual drought" in the Southwestern United States. The predicted drought should have significant observable effects before 2021:

Drought conditions are expected to resemble the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s and Texas' worst-ever drought of the 1950s, Dr. Seager said. Unlike those droughts, however, the new conditions won't be temporary, the study found.

"This time, once it's in, it's in for good," Dr. Seager said.

. . .

The Columbia research team examined the output of 19 climate models that made a total of 49 projections of future rainfall, temperatures and evaporation in the Southwest. All but the three of the projections concluded that the region will face a serious increase in drought conditions as early as 2021.

This map indicates the areas predicted to experience the "permanent drought"; the darker the color, the more severe the drought predicted.

The IPCC's next report is due out tomorrow.